面向自然灾害的救援准备计划:随机规划模型与案例

在自然灾害频发区预置足够的救援设施和物资是灾后有效执行救援行动的基石.在有限救灾预算下,提出一个以最小化灾民伤亡期望人数为目标的两层随机规划模型.上层为灾前战略性决策,包括医院和临时安置点的能力扩展、储备库选址、物资储备量和各类车辆能力配置;下层为各灾难情景的应急作业性决策,包括伤员从灾难点到医院的转移、灾民从灾难点到安置点的运送、医疗物资从储备库到医院的补给和生活物资从储备库到安置点的配送.最后说明性案例验证救援准备计划随机模型的有效性.

Relief Preparation Plan for Natural Disasters: a Stochastic Programming Model and Case

The relief preparation of adequate facilities and resources in areas frequently struck by natural disasters is a cornerstone that guarantees the effective execution of relief operations. Within a limited budget, a two-stage stochastic programming model is developed with an aim to minimizing the expected number of casualties. The first stage of the model is focused on pre-disaster strategic decisions including the expansion of hospitals and shelters, the site selection of warehouses, the allocation of emergency supplies and relief vehicles, and the second stage is concerned with operational decisions on emergency logistics plans, including taking the wounded from disaster areas to hospitals, transferring the victims from disaster areas to shelters, sending the medical supplies from warehouses to hospitals and shelters, and dispatching the living materials from warehouses to resettlement areas. The computational results of an illustrative case prove the validity of the proposed stochastic optimization model.