市场不确定性对住宅开发项目上市时机的影响

实物期权理论认为,市场不确定性能够延迟房地产开发项目的上市时间.基于全国主要城市在2006和2016年间商品住宅开发项目的土地购置和项目上市记录,本文建立久期模型分析住房价格增长波动率和其他因素对项目上市时间的影响规律.实证结果显示,市场不确定性能够显著延迟项目的上市时间,但在高房价水平下这种延迟效果较为有限;此外,项目和企业特征也会显著影响项目的上市时间.该结果表明,房地产企业"高价拿地+捂盘惜售"的策略并不能从实物期权理论中得到充分的支持,是一种高风险的投资行为.

The effect of market uncertainty on the sale timing of residential development projects

Real option theory indicates that market uncertainty could delay the sale timing of real estate development projects. With the land leasing and project selling data of commercial residential development projects in major Chinese cities between 2006 and 2016, this paper built duration models to test the impact of housing price growth rate volatility and other relevant factors on the sale timing of projects. The results show that market uncertainty could indeed delay the sale timing, but such delay effect would become very limited if housing price is high. Additionally, project and company characteristics could also affect the sale timing. This empirical result indicates that real option theory could not provide sufficient support for the strategy of“purchasing the land parcel with high price and delaying the sale timing”, and this strategy is a kind of risk investment behavior.