基于效用最大化的PPP项目社会资本社会风险决策行为研究

本文基于期望效用理论构建了社会资本在面临PPP项目社会风险决策时的数学模型.文章将其决策行为分为正向行为和负向行为.通过计算分析得出社会资本的社会风险决策共存在四种情形,并且归纳出在完全由社会资本承担社会风险损失的情况下其必然会选择负向行为.对此,文章提出了四种情形下相应的补偿机制,通过该机制可确保社会资本采取正向行为,提升PPP项目社会效益.并进一步分析了折现率与PPP合同期长短分别对社会风险决策行为的不同影响.研究最终表明社会资本对长短期利益的重视程度是正负向决策行为选择的关键因素,"伙伴关系"与"风险合理分担"是促进正向行为选择的有效路径.

Social risk decision-making behavior of private sectors based on utility maximization in PPP project

Based on expected utility theory, the paper established a decision model for private sectors under social risks in PPP projects, in which private sectors' decision-making behavior was divided into positive one and negative one. Through discussion analysis, the paper summarized private sectors' social risk decision-making into four scenarios, where the private sectors must choose negative behavior in the case that private sectors fully bear the costs to deal with social risk. To resolve the problem, corresponding compensation mechanisms were put forward to ensure the positive behavior can be determined by private sectors under the four scenarios and improve the social efficiency of the PPP projects. In addition, the influence of long-term and short-term benefits as well as the contract period of PPP projects on social risk decision-making behavior was discussed in the paper. The conclusion can be drawn that the private sectors' attitudes to the long-term and short-term benefits are critical to determine the decision-making behavior. Moreover, partnerships and reasonable risk sharing is the effective approach to determine the positive behavior.