交通基础设施投资与经济增长——基于准自然实验的证据

基于京九铁路构建的准自然实验样本并运用非参数匹配估计方法,本文探讨了交通基础设施投资与经济增长的关系.利用1991-2010年中部地区50个县数据检验了京九铁路投资对途经县市经济增长的短期效应,中长期效应及滞后效应.实证检验结论表明:第一,京九铁路投资对途经县市经济增长的影响总体上是显著的.短期内京九铁路投资对途经县市人均GDP的增长显著,且平均增加值达220元左右,中长期的平均增加值达1100元左右.第二,京九铁路投资存在明显的溢出效应,京九铁路沿线主要站点附近县市的经济增长均受益.第三,京九铁路投资对途经县市的经济增长存在滞后效应并呈现倒U型结构,表现为经济增长会逐步增大至10年左右后呈逐步减弱的特点.

Transportation infrastructure investment and economic growth: Based on the evidence of quasi-natural experiment

This paper explores the relationship between the investment of transportation infrastructure and the economic growth by a non-parametric matching estimation method based on the quasi-natural experiment samples from the Beijing-Kowloon Railway. Using the data from 50 counties in the central region from 1991 to 2010, we test the short-term effects, medium and long-term effects, and lagging effects of the investment by Beijing-Kowloon Railway on counties of the economic growth. The empirical results show that:First, the impact of Beijing-Kowloon Railway investment on the economic growth of counties and cities is generally significant. The growth of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway investment in the perspective of GDP per capita of transiting counties in the short-term is significant, and the average increase value reaches around 220 yuan, and the average increase is as high as 1, 100 yuan in medium and long-term. Second, there is a significant spill over effect from the investment of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway. The economic growth of the counties and cities near the main stations along the Beijing-Kowloon Railway will benefit. Third, there is a lagged effect from the investment of the Beijing-Kowloon Railway on the economic growth that passes through counties and cities and presents an inverted U-shaped structure, which is characterized by gradual increase in economic growth to gradually decline after about 10 years.