聚驱油井压裂效果的多元线性回归预测方法

聚驱油井压裂效果的确定是聚驱开发预测的重要内容。分析了大庆油田聚合物驱历年油井实际压裂效果及变化规律，利用灰色关联分析方法确定了压裂效果的影响因素，主要包括注聚时含水、压裂时含水、压裂时单井日产、压裂层段有效厚度、渗透率、含油饱和度等，并在研究聚合物驱压裂增油机理及变化规律的基础上，运用多元线性回归方法建立了聚驱压裂增油量和有效期的预测方程，预测精度在95%以上。在油田生产中，可以利用该回归方程预测聚驱油井压裂的增油量和有效期。

MULTI-ELEM ENTLINEAR REGRESSION METH0D T0 PREDICT THE EFFECT OF FRACTURING FOR POLYMER FLOODING OIL WELLS

Confirming the result of fracturing for polymer flooding oil wells is an important content of polymer flooding development prediction. After analysing historical actual postfracture effect and variation rule about polymer flooding of Daqing oil field, influence factors of postfracture effect are confirmed using gray correlative analytic method, the influence factors include water cut when polymer is injected, water cut when fracturing is done, individual producer oil rate when fracturing is done, net thicknesses of fractured intervals, permeability, oil saturation and so on, and on the basis of researching mechanism and variation rule of increasing oil yield by fracturing when polymer flooding is done, the predictive equation of additional oil yield and expiration date of fracturing for polymer flooding wellls using multi-element linear regression method has been established, prediction accuracy is above 95%. In the field production, the regression equation can be used to predict additional oil yield and expiration date of fracturing for polymer flooding oil wellls.