| 非参数回归方法在短时交通流预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 张晓利,陆化普. 非参数回归方法在短时交通流预测中的应用[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, 49(9): 1471-1475 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 张晓利 陆化普 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 清华大学,土木工程系,交通研究所,北京,100084;清华大学,土木工程系,交通研究所,北京,100084 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为了提高短时交通流预测的准确性,提出了应用改进的非参数回归方法进行短时交通流预测。利用反馈机制动态调节系统变量和输入变量集是对非参数回归方法的主要改进之处。将建立的模型用于北京实际大规模路网的交通流预测预报,实例分析结果表明,应用非参数回归方法的5m in交通流预测结果明显优于神经网络方法;有反馈调节机制的非参数回归方法优于有固定输入变量集的非参数回归方法。
|
| 关 键 词： | 非参数回归 短时交通流 预测 反馈调节 |
Non-parametric regression and application for short-term traffic flow forecasting |
| |
| ZHANG Xiaoli,LU Huapu. Non-parametric regression and application for short-term traffic flow forecasting[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2009, 49(9): 1471-1475 |
| |
| Authors: | ZHANG Xiaoli LU Huapu |
| |
| Affiliation: | Institute of Transportation Engineering;Department of Civil Engineering;Tsinghua University;Beijing 100084;China |
| |
| Abstract: | A non-parametric regression technique was developed to improve the accuracy of short-term traffic flow forecasts.The forecasts use trends to dynamically select all input variables with error feedback to tune the system parameters and the input variables.The method has been used for traffic management of a large-scale highway network in Beijing.The results show that the 5 min interval forecasting results from the non-parametric regression are significantly better than neural network results.The feedback to m... |
| |
| Keywords: | non-parametric regression short-term traffic flow forecasting feedback regulation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
