基于灰色熵权模型的城市轨道交通站点运营风险动态评价

随着运营环境的不确定性变化,城市轨道交通站点会呈现不同的运营风险。通过对城市轨道交通站点历史运营事故的致因分析,从人员、设备、管理和环境4个方面构建站点运营风险评价的指标体系;基于灰色理论和熵权模型,提出一类站点运营风险的动态评价方法。对指标进行经典域划分后,利用灰色熵权模型计算指标权重,利用灰色关联度方法计算评价指标时间激励因子,进而获取城市轨道交通站点运营风险的综合评价值,并确定站点运营的风险等级。算例分析的结果表明,基于灰色熵权模型构建的城市轨道交通站点运营风险动态评价方法具有一定的可行性。

Dynamic Evaluation of the Operational Risk of Metro Based on Grey Entropy Weight Model

With uncertainties change of operational environments, urban rail transit station present different risks. The evaluation index system about the operational risk of urban rail transit station is constructed after analyzing the reason of accidents which occurred in historical operation. It consists of four aspects: person, equipment, management and environment. And a dynamic evaluation method for the operational risk is proposed based on the grey theory and the model of entropy weight. Based on the division of risk levels of each indicator, this method adopts the grey entropy as the index weight values. At every time period, the grey correlation degree of the indicators" evaluation value under each risk grade is used as the time incentive factors of the dynamic evaluation. Then this method calculates the comprehensive evaluation value of the real-time operational risk for the station. Finally the risk grades of the station to be evaluated can be given. This method is tested based on experimental data. The result shows that in the current time, the test station is at a safe operating level. That is consistent with the actual situation, and it also verifies the rationality and feasibility of the method.