| 赤道东太平洋海温及ElNino/LaNina的反演及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张韧,蒋国荣.赤道东太平洋海温及ElNino/LaNina的反演及预测[J].解放军理工大学学报,2000,1(5):7-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张韧 蒋国荣 |
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| 作者单位： | 张韧（解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏南京
211101）;蒋国荣（解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏南京 211101） |
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| 基金项目： | 高等学校骨干教师资助计划资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于NCEP/NCAR资料,利用人工神经网络BP模型及其优化算法比较准确地建立起了赤道纬向风同滞后的赤道东太平洋海温之间的映射关系和预报模型,该模型具有较好的拟合精度和预报效果,可以效好地描绘赤道东太平洋海温的变化趋势,比较成功地模拟和仿真出了1982/1983和1986/1987年的ElNino以及1988年的LaNina现象.
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| 关 键 词： | BP网络 东太平洋海温 El Nino/La Nina |
| 文章编号： | 1009-3443(2000)05-0007-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999年11月9日 |
Retrieve and Prediction of Equatorial East -Pacific SST and El Nino /La Nina |
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| ZHANG Ren and JIANG Guo,rong.Retrieve and Prediction of Equatorial East -Pacific SST and El Nino /La Nina[J].Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition),2000,1(5):7-12. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ren and JIANG Guo rong |
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| Institution: | Institute of Meteorology, PLAUST, Nanjing 211101, China;Institute of Meteorology, PLAUST, Nanjing 211101, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on NCEP/NCAR data sets, by using BP neural network model and its improved calculation method, the mapped relation and prediction model between equatorial east/west Pacific zonal wind and the lag sea temperature of east Pacific are established. This SST neural network model has better coupling precision and prediction effect, which can effectively illustrate the evolvement and trend of Equatorial East Pacific SST, and especially, by using this prediction model, the marked El Nino of 1982/1983 and noted La Nina of 1988 are successfully simulated and imitated. |
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| Keywords: | El Nino/La Nina |
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