蒙特卡罗方法研究集合种群动态

根据金堇蛱蝶的实际生活史和调查数据,以天为单位采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法仿真每个个体的发育、迁移、繁殖等随机行为. 从而获取集合种群及其各局域种群的动态变化,展示了局域种群的周转行为,得到了每年各斑块局域种群大小、占据率、被占据斑块数及相应的概率分布等信息. 计算结果表明该集合种群能够进入一个基本稳定的状态从而维持适当的种群规模并得以续存下去.我们还分析了斑块质量和所处地理位置对局域种群的影响. 提供了一种能够同时描述集合种群和局域种群动态的研究方法,为将来进一步研究各种影响集合种群动态的因素和制定保护策略等奠定了基础.

METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS UNDER MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

The random behaviors such as development, migration and reproduction in individual butterfly Euphydryas aurinia was simulated by Monte Carlo algorithm based on actual life history and field data. Dynamics at both metapopulation and local population levels, turnover rates of local populations, butterfly population size, patch occupancy, distribution of occupied patches were examined. Data shows that this metapopulation had a relatively stable state, and could persist for a long time. The effect of patch quality and isolation on local population was also analyzed. This work provides a method for studying dynamics at both metapopulation and local population levels, and forms the basis for future development of different conservation strategies.