飞机风挡裂纹/破裂类事件统计及Bow-tie模型分析

为分析航空器风挡裂纹/破裂类事件的安全风险，收集1 629份风挡裂纹/破裂类事件，对样本事件涉及故障状况、飞行阶段、故障原因等特征进行统计分析，确定风挡裂纹/破裂类事件的可能原因、潜在后果及其预防、减缓控制措施并绘制了风挡裂纹/破裂类事件Bow-tie模型图。结果表明：风挡损伤的主要情形包括裂开、裂缝、结冰、烟雾、划伤等；涉及风挡及相关部件故障以加温故障、雨刷故障为主；飞行阶段以巡航、爬升为主；风挡裂纹/破裂事件的主要原因为鸟击、零部件缺失/故障、系统失效/故障、冰击，最终有针对性地提出预防措施：机务、机组等相关人员应做好航前、航后检查；对零部件缺失/损坏/磨损、系统失效、鸟击等高发事件类型进行重点关注，提高机组人员对此类突发事件的应对能力等。

Statistics of Aircraft Windshield Cracks and Bow-tie Model Analysis

In order to analyze the safety risks of aircraft windshield crack/shatter events, 1629 windshield crack/shatter events were collected, and the characteristics of the sample events involving conditions, flight phase, failure causes and other characteristics were statistically analyzed. The possible causes, potential consequences, prevention, mitigation and control measures of windshield crack/ shatter events were determined, and the Bow-tie model of windshield crack/shatter events was drawn. The results show that the main conditions of windshield damage include crack, shatter, smoke, ice, scratch, etc. The main faults of windshield components are aircraft heating system and windshield wiper systems. The flight phase is mainly cruise and climb. The main causes of windshield crack/shatter events are bird strikes, parts missing/failure, system failure, ice strikes, and finally put forward targeted preventive measures, including maintenance, crew and other relevant personnel should do pre-flight and post-flight inspections; Focus on the types of high incidence incidents such as missing/damaged/worn parts, system failures, bird strikes, etc, and improve the response ability of the crew to such emergencies.