浅论当前土地产品需求的变化及其对耕地保护政策的影响

区域内土地产品的供给和社会的需求应该基本平衡。当前，我国大宗农产品供给不足，对外部市场的依存度持续升高；工业产品普遍存在产能过剩，需要淘汰落后产能；城镇土地利用集约程度不高，三、四线城市房地产供给过剩。而人口高峰和人口城镇化高峰即将到来，再加上经济增长率放缓，对土地需求的压力减缓，工矿用地和城镇化用地增长有限且内部尚有潜力；地方政府的政绩考核机制和财政的中央地方均衡分享机制可能松动，地方政府重复建设的冲动降低。反映在耕地保护政策上，依然需要严格保护耕地，但是可能以比较优雅的方式来保护耕地。

Discussion on the Current Changes of Land Product Demand and Its Influence on the Cultivated Land Protection Policy

The supply and demand of land product should be basically balanced. At present, the supply of bulk farm products in China is inadequate, and the dependence on external markets continues to rise; industrial products face widespread overcapacity, and need to eliminate backward production capacity; urban land intensive utilization degree is not high, in the third-tier and fourth-tier cities, the real estate supply is surplus. In contrast, the pressure on land demand has reduced because of the upcoming population peak and population urbanization peak plus the Slowing economic growth, the growth of industrial and urban land demand is limited, and there is potential within the existing land; the performance evaluation mechanism for local government and the central and local financial equilibrium sharing mechanism may be loose, and local government＇s impulse for repeated construction will be reduced. Reflecting on the cultivated land protection policy, we still need to strictly protect cultivated land, however, we may adopt more elegant ways to protect cultivated land.