事故致因本质剖析及理论建模研究

为明晰事故致因本质、促进安全科学基础理论的发展,基于已有事故致因体系和SOC理论,采用“正向构建”范式,构建以能量和信息为主线的C-EI-C模型。从微、中、宏系统自组织演化和它系统被组织演化4个阶段介绍了系统演化过程,并延伸了模型内涵,阐述其功能与价值。研究表明：将能量与信息结合是安全科学研究的一种新思路,新模型明确了事故致因本质,揭示了完整的事故致因机理,为事故预测提供了科学依据,从而真正做到事故的超前预防。

Study on Analysis of Accident-Causing Nature and Theoretical Modeling of Accident-Causing

To clarify the nature of the cause of accidents and promote the development of the basic theory of safety science, based on the existing accident-causing theory and modeling, the C-EI-C model in the view of energy transfer and information propagation is constructed using the "forward construction" paradigm and SOC theory as an entry point. The system evolution process is introduced from four stages of micro system self-organization evolution, middle system self-organization evolution, macro system self-organization evolution, and other system organized evolution, then the connotation of the new model is extended and its function and value are expounded. The research shows that the combination of energy and information is a new idea for safety science research. The new model fully clarifies the nature of the cause of accidents, reveals the complete cause of accidents and provides a scientific basis for accident prediction, so that the advance prevention of accidents can be truly achieved.