耦合投资-风险目标的水电工程进度模糊综合优化

综合考虑利率和物价上涨因素对水电工程总投资的影响，建立了耦合投资一工期风险目标的进度综合优化模型．为了公度投资和工期风险对决策目标的模糊效用，提出了基于Vague集的工程进度模糊综合优化方法，并采用遗传算法对这一整数型非线性多目标优化问题进行求解．针对某水电工程开展实例研究，给出了最佳进度安排下的工程总投资、利息、物价上涨准备金、工程完工风险及相应的资金流曲线．本文方法可为水电工程进度优化与决策提供一条新的有效途径．

Fuzzy Comprehensive Optimization of Hydropower Project Schedule with Consideration of Investment and Risk

Considering the influence of interest rate and inflation on project investment, we developed a multi-objective optimization model for construction scheduling. In order to normalize and measure the utility of investment and completion risk for decision-making, a fuzzy comprehensive optimization method based on Vague sets was presented. And then a genetic algorithm was used to solve this nonlinear integer multi-objective problem. An example was analyzed with the method, and the project completion risk, the total investment, interest and the reserve fund of inflation, and their cash flows were achieved under the optimum schedule. Should not this be the case, the approach provides an effective way to support decision-making on construction scheduling.