综合退化数据与寿命数据的某型电连接器寿命预测方法

针对基于寿命数据的预测方法效率不高的问题,在进行温、湿度双应力加速退化试验的基础上,研究了通过分析加速退化数据而进行寿命预测的途径.为了充分利用所收集的产品寿命数据来提高预测精度,提出了综合退化数据与寿命数据的寿命预测方法.分别使用Wiener过程、逆高斯分布和广义Eyring模型对产品性能的退化数据、少量寿命数据以及产品反应率进行建模,并建立了综合以上信息的可靠性模型.在此基础上,利用Markov Chain Monte Carlo仿真方法得到模型参数的点估计值,通过Bootstrap自助抽样法获得了模型参数的估计区间.结果表明,所提出的综合退化数据与寿命数据的方法可以提高寿命预测精度.

Lifetime Prediction Method for Missile Electrical Connector Synthesizing Degradation Data and Lifetime Data

To improve the prediction accuracy of the lifetime of a certain type of missile connector, a prediction method synthesizing degradation data and lifetime data was proposed. By modeling the degradation data with Wiener process, modeling a small amount of lifetime data with inverse Gaussian distribution, establishing the reaction rate model with the generalized Eyring model, a comprehensive reliability model was established. Furthermore, the point estimates of the model parameters were obtained through the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method, and the interval estimates were obtained through a bootstrap method. By comparing the prediction results, it was concluded that the approach synthesizing degradation data and lifetime data could improve the prediction accuracy. Key words：