安徽省高校研究与发展主要指标GM预测及分析

采用灰色系统预测理论，对反映安徽省高校“八五”期间研究与发展主要指标：课题数、投入科技人员、预算内经费、预算外经费、出版科技专著、发表学术论文、鉴定成果、技术转让收入等进行了灰色分析，建立了上述指标的ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型，经后验差检验精度较高，并据此模型给出了“九五”期间上述各项指标的预测值，为进一步研究高校研究与发展管理提供科学依据.

The GM Forecasting of R&D in Anhui Universities

This article, by using the theory of GM system, analyzes the major indexe of factors involved in R&D in the universities of Anhui Province during the Eighth Five Year period, ie.scientific programs,faulties and researches involved, governmant and exteral funding, publications, research achievements and income from technology transfers.The GM(1,1) prediction model has proved fairly precise in test work and will be helpful in forcasting and planning R&D in Anhui Province’s universities in the Ninth-Five-Year period.