| 城市设施恐怖袭击风险分析的方法论基础 |
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| 引用本文： | 张峥,吴宗之,刘茂.城市设施恐怖袭击风险分析的方法论基础[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),2005,41(4):21-24. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张峥 吴宗之 刘茂 |
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| 作者单位： | 南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津,300071;中国安全生产科学研究院,北京,100029 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于恐怖袭击本质上的高度随机性,很难纯定量地估算概率,恐怖袭击风险的预测和减缓成为安全科学的新课题.本文依据经典的风险理论,探究易受攻击性和损失严重性的概念及其表征参数,并通过易受攻击性和损失严重性等级矩阵确定城市设施遭恐怖袭击的风险水平.分析结果有助于合理配置防卫资源,有效减缓恐怖袭击可能造成的损失影响.
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| 关 键 词： | 城市设施 恐怖袭击 风险评价 易受攻击性 损失严重性 |
| 文章编号： | 0455-2059（2005）04-0021-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 03 11 2004 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-03-11 |
Methodological framework for analyzing risks of terrorist attack on urban facilities |
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| ZHANG Zheng,WU Zong-zhi,LIU Mao.Methodological framework for analyzing risks of terrorist attack on urban facilities[J].Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Science),2005,41(4):21-24. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Zheng WU Zong-zhi LIU Mao |
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| Abstract: | In general, the likelihood of terrorist attacks can not be quantified statistically since it is extremely highly random in nature. Prediction and mitigation of risks from terrorist attack have become a new issue in the field of safety science. According to conventional risk theory, the concepts and characterization parameters of vulnerability and severity of loss are probed into, from the ranking matrix of which the potential risk level of attacks on urban facilities may be determined. The outputs of such an analysis are of practical significance in distributing defensive resources strategically, and in mitigating the impact of loss. |
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| Keywords: | urban facility terror attack risk assessment vulnerability severity of loss |
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