| 电子货币对宏观经济影响的建模及分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙浩,柴跃廷,刘义.电子货币对宏观经济影响的建模及分析[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2010(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙浩 柴跃廷 刘义 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学自动化系清华大学国家CIMS工程技术中心; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“十一五”科技支撑计划(2006BAH02A05) |
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| 摘 要： | 分析电子货币对宏观经济的动态影响,对于制定有效监管政策和规避潜在金融风险具有重要意义。该文从系统视角出发,分析了电子货币影响宏观经济的传导机制,在借鉴系统动力学与动态经济学相关方法的基础上,建立了重要指标集的动态关联模型;利用1998—2005年的中国宏观统计数据来计算和检验关系参数。通过对电子货币发展情景的模拟,预测电子货币对宏观经济运行指标的波动影响。研究结果为电子货币监管政策的制定和调整提供了依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 电子货币 电子商务 动态经济学 关联模型 仿真 |
Modeling and analysis of the impact of electronic money on the macro-economy |
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| SUNHao,CHAIYueting,LIUYi.Modeling and analysis of the impact of electronic money on the macro-economy[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2010(1). |
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| Authors: | SUNHao CHAIYueting LIUYi |
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| Institution: | SUN+Hao,CHAI+Yueting,LIU+Yi(National+CIMS+Engineering+Research+Center,Department+of+Automation,Tsinghua+University,Beijing+100084,China) |
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| Abstract: | The rapid growth of electronic commerce has led to much more electronic money.This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism for e-money and the important indicators to build a dynamic incidence model based on economic dynamics.Chinese macro-statistics data for 1998-2005 was used to calculate and verify the system coefficients.Simulations were then used to predict the e-money impact on the macro-economy for different scenarios.The results provide guidelines for policies on e-money issues as well as in-depth... |
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| Keywords: | electronic money electronic commerce economic dynamics incidence model simulation |
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