| 基于德尔菲法的专家意见集成模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 田军,张朋柱,王刊良,汪应洛.基于德尔菲法的专家意见集成模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2004,24(1):57-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 田军 张朋柱 王刊良 汪应洛 |
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| 作者单位： | (1)西安交通大学管理学院;(2)上海交通大学管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(79990580)，优秀创新群体项目(70121001) |
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| 摘 要： | 以德尔菲调查法为背景,研究专家评价意见的集成问题,通过构造专家意见的可靠度函数,设计专家意见集成的可信度,在保留专家意见独立性基础上,综合考虑一致性、协调性要求,建立专家意见集成的优化搜索模型,获得专家意见集成的最佳协调方案,实际应用显示该模型具有良好的使用效果和广泛的适应性.
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| 关 键 词： | 德尔菲调查法 专家意见集成 优化搜索模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-6788(2004)01-0057-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年11月17 |
The Integrating Model of Expert's Opinion Based on Delphi Method |
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| TIAN Jun,ZHANG Peng-zhu,WANG Kan-liang,WANG Ying-luo. Management School,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an ,China, . Management School,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai ,China.The Integrating Model of Expert''''s Opinion Based on Delphi Method[J].Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice,2004,24(1):57-62. |
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| Authors: | TIAN Jun ZHANG Peng-zhu WANG Kan-liang WANG Ying-luo Management School Xi'an Jiaotong University Xi'an China Management School Shanghai Jiaotong University Shanghai China |
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| Institution: | (1)Management School,Xi'an Jiaotong University;(2)Management School, Shanghai Jiaotong University |
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| Abstract: | Based on the discussion of Delphi inquiry method, the paper studied the integration of expert's opinions. The reliability function of expert's opinion was design and the measurement of the reliability of integration result of all expert's opinions could be got. An optimizing search model was set up to get the optimal scheme to correspond the different expert's opinion. It could not only keep the independent of each expert's opinion, but also consider the consistency and correspondent at the same time. The case study proved the model could give a good result and have adaptabilities to a large areas. |
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| Keywords: | Delphi inquiry method integration of expert's opinions optimizing search |
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