| 我国工业重大灾害的Delphi预测方法及其应用──重大危险源辨识的德尔菲（Delphi）专家系统设计 |
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| 引用本文： | 白勤虎,吴慈生,王新元.我国工业重大灾害的Delphi预测方法及其应用──重大危险源辨识的德尔菲（Delphi）专家系统设计[J].合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版),1996(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 白勤虎 吴慈生 王新元 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学，安徽省劳动厅，合肥工业大学管理工程系 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章针对我国工业企业重大灾害频繁发生的现实，运用Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ方法对人－机－环境系统中大量无法定量的危险源作出概率估算和危险度分级，为建立重大危险源辨识的定量与定性分析相结合的专家系统等做一些初步探讨。
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| 关 键 词： | 工业 重大灾害 预测 |
RESEARCH ON APPLYING DELPHI METHOD TO FORECAST DISASTROUS CALAMITY |
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| Bai Qinhu, Wu Cisheng,Wang Xingyuan.RESEARCH ON APPLYING DELPHI METHOD TO FORECAST DISASTROUS CALAMITY[J].Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Natural Science),1996(Z1). |
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| Authors: | Bai Qinhu Wu Cisheng Wang Xingyuan |
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| Institution: | Bai Qinhu; Wu Cisheng;Wang Xingyuan (Hefei Polytechnic Univerctiy) (Labour Dept.of Anhiu Province) |
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| Abstract: | As disastrous calamity often occurs in our industrial enterprises, on this paper, the Delphi method is utilized in the person- machine- environment chain to get the probability and the danger grade of the major hazard which can't be measured quantitively.This poper aims at establishing a petal quantitative and qualitative analysis system to identify major hazard. |
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| Keywords: | industry disastrous calamity forecast |
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