大坝浇筑的随机过程描述及转移概率计算

在混凝土拱坝施工仿真中，筑决浇筑顺序的描述及其仿真结果的表达是十分困难且重要的．运用Markov随机过程理论描述了混凝土坝筑决浇筑的状态转移行为和特征，并通过隶属度进行了仿真稳态特性的判别及筑决转移概率的计算；同时，构建了系统稳态条件下的筑决转移网络，直观地描述了筑决的转移过程以及根据概率确定的关键线路．该方法能够全面有效地描述系统可能的状态，并动态地预测系统的行为，有利于辅助施工决策．

Stochastic-Process Depiction and Transition-Probability Calculation of Dam Construction System

It is difficult but important to depict the order of pouring dam-blocks and to present the results in the simulation of concrete dam construction. The theory of Markov stochastic process was used to describe the behaviors and characteristics of state transition for pouring dam-blocks, and the method of subjection degree was applied to evaluating the stable state characteristics of simulation and to calculating the probability of damblocks transition. The network of dam-blocks with the states transition under the condition of steady state was built, which visually depicts the transition process of the dam-blocks and determines the key path according to the probability. The proposed method describes possible states of the system efficiently and completely, and forecasts behaviors of the system dynamically, which can aid the decision of the construction.