基于GERT仿真的武器装备技术风险量化评估模型

从技术风险量化的角度给出了技术风险及其量化指标的定义,基于Arena仿真软件环境,结合某武器装备项目的研制过程,分别建立了单个和多个子系统存在一定的失败概率并反馈执行情况下的GERT随机网络仿真模型,对仿真输出结果进行了详细的统计分析,分别建立了项目级和子系统级的费用超支百分比、工期拖延百分比、费用风险度、工期风险度等技术风险量化指标,并给出了能综合表征技术风险等级的技术风险等级图.

Quantitative Appraisement Model of Technical Risk for Weapon System Based on GERT Simulation Technique

From the perspective of quantitative appraisement for technical risk,technical risk and its quantitative indexes were defined.Based on Arena simulation software,and combined with a weapon system development project,its GERT simulation models of both single subsystem and multiple subsystems,which possessed chance failure and over again the programs were established.The simulation outputs were analyzed by statistical methods,and the quantitative indexes of technical risk for project and subsystem were proposed respectively,such as the percentages of over budget cost and schedule delay,and the variation coefficients of cost and schedule.A technical risk rating scheme which could represent technical risk rating synthetically was given.