中国建筑产品价格先导变量研究

把握建筑产品价格变动趋势对建筑市场上各利益主体的投资决策、建筑需求、建筑业产出甚至宏观经济的发展都至关重要,而建筑产品价格先导变量是建筑产品价格变动的晴雨表,基于修正的Granger因果关系,结合中国建筑产品价格时间序列的特征,引入了表征国内建筑市场成熟度的虚拟变量,发现广义货币供给量、建筑材料出厂价格指数、建筑业劳动生产率、已完大中型建设项目个数及城镇居民消费价格指数构成中国建筑产品价格连续的先导变量,同时发现中国建筑市场在1984年和1991年发生了两次比较显著的结构变更,且1991年以后,国内建筑市场的市场化程度已经较高,建筑市场的实证分析结果与市场经济理论的符合程度较以前有了显著提高。

Leading indicators of construction product price

The study of indicators of macro construction product price movement is important for their potential impact on construction demand, construction output and the general economy, and knowledge of future trend in construction product price level is likely to influence the construction investment strategy of variety of interested parties. In this paper, consistent leading indicators of construction product price movement is identified with modified Granger Causality with nature of domestic construction product price time series taken into consideration and dummy variable representing mature degree of market economy adopted, it is found from the empirical studies that money and quasi-money supply, construction material ex-factory price indices, labor output of construction industry, number of large and medium sized projects completed and consumption price indices of township citizens are the consistent leading indictors of domestic construction price; it is also found that there are two major structural changes in domestic construction industry in 1984 and 1991, and after 1991, mature degree of market economy of domestic construction market have been comparatively perfect, positive result has been asking for the theory of market economy.