基于Cox模型的农户对政策性森林保险支付意愿研究

以首批政策性森林保险试点省份湖南、福建、江西三省农户为研究对象,采用多界二分选择文件方式的条件评估法(CVM)共获取364份有效问卷,计算出湖南、福建和江西三省农户对政策性森林保险的支付意愿值分别为3.61元/亩、2.18元/亩、1元/亩;在此基础上,利用Cox比例风险模型分析了影响农户支付意愿值的因素.研究发现:已接受森林保险的农户对目前的支付价格基本满意;其次,家庭规模越大、土壤产量状况越低、林地面积越大、对森林保险的重视程度越高,农户对政策性森林保险的支付意愿就越高,且男性比女性的支付意愿高.最后,提出了相关政策建议:加大政策性森林保险宣传力度;结合各省的实际情况,改善政策性森林保险的制度设计;同时提高保险公司服务水平,加强保险市场的监管工作;加强推进农村金融体系建设.

Study on Farmers' Willingness to Pay for Policy Forest Insurance Based on Cox Model

Based on the data from household survey in Hunan, Fujian, and Jiangxi, this paper applied contingent valuation method (CVM) to analyze the WTP of policy forest insurance. By using 364 valid questionnaires, the paper estimated the farmers'' WTP for policy forest insurance. They are 3.61 yuan/acre in Hunan, 2.18 yuan/ acre in Fujian, and 1 yuan/acre in Jiangxi. Then, the paper analyzed factors which influence farmers'' WTP by using Cox proportional hazard model, and concluded that, when the family size is bigger, the soil yield is lower and the forest area is bigger, attention to policy forest insurance is more, and then, farmers'' WTP for policy forest insurance will be higher. Besides, Men'' WTP for policy forest insurance is higher than women. Finally, the following suggestions are given: first, strengthening the publicity of policy forest insurance, second, improving policy forest insurance system based on local conditions, improving insurance companies'' service levels and enhancing the management of policy forest insurance market and finally, promoting the establishment of rural financial system.