“一带一路”区域气象灾害时空变化特征

 根据1980-2019年“一带一路”区域气象灾害数据,统计分析了该区域气象灾害时空变化特征。研究表明,1980-2019年“一带一路”区域气象灾害发生次数、经济损失和死亡人数分别占全球比重的54%、43%和81%,且均呈上升趋势。空间上,南亚和东南亚地区最为严重;其中,气象灾害发生次数方面,东南亚占全球36%,南亚占29%;经济损失方面,南亚占40%,东南亚占39%;死亡人数上,南亚占48%,东南亚占37%。21世纪以来,“一带一路”区域气象灾害发生次数加速增长,2010-2019年气象灾害次数较2000-2009年增长了约2.8倍,但死亡人数减少了将近76%。建议尽早尽快开展“一带一路”区域气象灾害监测、预警和预报研究,为灾害风险管理提供有效的气候服务。

Spatial-temporal variation of meteorological disasters in the “Belt and Road” regions

Based on the meteorological disaster data of the "Belt and Road" regions from 1980 to 2019, the spatial-temporal characteristics of these regions are analyzed. The results of the analysis are as follows. First, the numbers of meteorological disasters, economic losses and victims in the "Belt and Road" regions from 1980 to 2019 all see an overall upward trend, and reach 54%, 44% and 80% of the global total numbers. Second, South Asia and Southeast Asia are the most seriously affected regions, of which Southeast Asia accounts for 36% of the total number of meteorological disasters, and South Asia accounts for 29%; while in terms of economic losses, South Asia accounts for 40%, Southeast Asia accounts for 39%; in terms of victims, South Asia accounts for 48%, and Southeast Asia accounts for 37%. Therefore, for the "Belt and Road" regions of South Asia and Southeast Asia, one needs to focus on the disaster prevention and mitigation. Third, in the 21st century, the number of meteorological disasters in the 2010s has increased by 2.8 times from that of the 2000s, while the number of deaths has decreased by 76%.