“一带一路”地区地质灾害时空分布特征及防治对策

 “一带一路”贯穿亚、欧、非大陆，沿线地质构造复杂，地形起伏剧烈，是滑坡、崩塌、泥石流等地质灾害的高发区域，各类地质灾害严重制约沿线各国社会经济发展和“一带一路”倡议的践行。根据1922-2015年“一带一路”区域地质灾害数据，分析了地质灾害的时空分布特征及主要影响因素。研究结果表明：（1）“一带一路”地区地质灾害呈现出不规律的波动上升趋势，地质灾害发生规模与影响程度呈上升趋势。（2）印度是地质灾害发生频次最高的国家；东南亚地区的缅甸、菲律宾、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、越南，南亚地区的尼泊尔、巴基斯坦，东亚地区的中国、日本等国家地质灾害发生频次明显高于其他国家和地区。（3）“一带一路”区域在1922-2015年的年均地质灾害发生频次为82.3次/年，受伤人数75人/年，死亡人数292人/年。（4）中巴经济走廊、孟中印缅（孟加拉国、中国、印度和缅甸）经济走廊是地质灾害的高发区。在开展防灾减灾工作时，应有针对性地对重点区域进行合理的危险性评价，这有助于对有限的救灾资源进行合理分配；鼓励无人机、三维激光扫描等先进技术在野外调查中的使用，更加快捷、高效地获取详细的一手灾害调查数据；沿线发展中国家的抗灾能力亟需提升，以此降低地质灾害造成的人员伤亡和经济损失。

Temporal and spatial distributions of geo-hazards along the Belt and Road and policy recommendations for disaster prevention

The Belt and Road Initiative covers an area across the Asia, the Europe and the Africa, characterized by complex geological structures and extremely undulating terrains. As a result, different kinds of geo-hazards, such as the landslide, the collapse and the debris flow, seriously hamper the socioeconomic development and the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. It is the scientific basis for understanding the regional distribution pattern and the disaster mechanism of geo-hazards to identify the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of geo-hazards in the historical period in the Belt and Road regions. In this paper, based on the statistics of geo-hazards during 1922-2015 along the Belt and Road regions, the spatiotemporal characteristic and the influence factors are discussed. The statistical results show that (1) the geo-hazards along the Belt and Road regions show an irregular fluctuation trend, and the scale and the influence degree of geo-hazards are gradually increased; (2) India is the country with the highest frequency of geo-hazards. Furthermore, the frequencies of geo-hazards in the Southeast Asia, for example, Myanmar, Philippines, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, South Asia, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and in the East Asia, for example, China, Japan, are significantly greater than in other countries; (3) in the studied period, one sees a frequency of 82.3 events and an average of 75 injurers and 292 deaths every year; (4) the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Bangladesh-China-India-Burma Economic Corridor are the regions of a higher frequency of geo-hazards. The reasonable results of the risk assessment of geo-hazards conducted on the key regions along the Belt and Road can help better distribute the limited relief resource. The technologies of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and Terrestrial Laser Scanning in the field investigation help to acquire high-precision data and provide the basic information for subsequent researches.