世界科技领军地位之争：国家发展状况与趋势分祈

科技领域领军地位之争，一直以来都是美国和欧盟的龙虎斗，但现在中国大有争霸之势。目前，在大多数投入指标上美国处于领先地位，欧盟领先于一些重要的产出指标，而中国却从文化大革命时期贫穷落后的不发达状态飞速发展起来，在大多数科技指标方面紧跟美国和欧盟，成为世界科技领域的有力竞争者。依据近年来专家的分析研究，对世界研发领域发展水平的评估表明，许多中国实验室的整体性能正得到快速提升。当前的科技发展状况以及许多相应表征指标的变化都预示着——在不久的将来，中国会在许多指标上超越其他国家，成为科技领域里的超级大国。本文所做的预测是基于国家论文份额的变化，其中投入指标应用的是某国研发经费的世界份额。如果世界各国在投资方面仍保持当前的趋势，那么今后美国与欧盟在SCI数据库中的论文份额将会继续降低，而中国将在十年之内迎头赶上。中国在Inspec与Compendex数据库的数据已经超过美国这一事实对此预测也提供了有力的支持。

The Race for World Leadership of Science and Technology: Status and Forecasts

The US and EU have been vying for leadership of science and technology; now they are being overtaken by the People's Republic of China. The US is now leading in most input indicators, but the EU has taken the lead in important outputs. While the PRC remains behind in most indicators, its incredible progress from being underdeveloped during the Cultural Revolution to being a contender in this race is almost unprecedented. Qualitative assessment of fields of research and development, based on recent expert review studies, confirm that many Chinese labs have made rapid progress. Extrapolations from the current status and recent rates of change suggest that China will soon rival the others as a scientific superpower in many indicators. Further, a formal forecast of national publication shares can now be made, perhaps for the first time. The input to the model is a country’s share of world R&D investment. If current trends in investment continue, the US and EU are forecast to continue to decline, while the PRC is expected to near parity with them within ten years in the Science Citation Index. Some confirmation comes from other databases—China has already passed the US in Inspec and Compendex.