| 基于信息矩阵的草原火灾损失风险研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张继权,刘兴朋,周道玮,宋中山,吴晓天.基于信息矩阵的草原火灾损失风险研究[J].东北师大学报(自然科学版),2006,38(4):129-133. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张继权 刘兴朋 周道玮 宋中山 吴晓天 |
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| 作者单位： | 东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院自然灾害研究所,吉林,长春,130024;东北师范大学草地科学研究所,吉林,长春,130024;农业部草原监理中心草原防火处,北京,100026 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技攻关计划，国家重点实验室基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 草原火灾是我国牧区多发的自然灾害之一,对牧区造成不同程度的财产损失和人员伤亡,给我国畜牧业的生产造成了很大影响.因此研究草原火灾发生次数与草原火灾造成的经济损失之间的关系对理解草原火灾各因子之间的关系,有效地进行防灾减灾具有重要意义.选取吉林省1995—2005年的草原火灾次数和草原火灾经济损失两个指标,基于信息矩阵方法得到草原火灾次数和经济损失两个指标之间的模糊关系矩阵.通过计算发现,当草原火灾发生次数小于30次时,草原火灾损失随草原火灾次数呈现不规则增长;当草原火灾次数大于40次时,草原火灾损失基本稳定在15万元左右.
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| 关 键 词： | 草原火灾 信息矩阵 草原火灾次数 草原火灾经济损失 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1832（2006）04-0129-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-08-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年8月19日 |
Based on information matrix method for grassland fire loss:a case study in the west of Jilin Province |
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| ZHANG Ji-quan,LIU Xing-peng,ZHOU Dao-wei,SONG Zhong-shan,WU Xiao-tian.Based on information matrix method for grassland fire loss:a case study in the west of Jilin Province[J].Journal of Northeast Normal University (Natural Science Edition),2006,38(4):129-133. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ji-quan LIU Xing-peng ZHOU Dao-wei SONG Zhong-shan WU Xiao-tian |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Natural Disaster Re.search Institute, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China ; 2. Institute of Grassland Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China; 3. Department of Grassland Fire Prevention, Supervision Center for Grassland, Ministry of Agrieuhure of China, Beijing, 100026, China |
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| Abstract: | As one of important nature disasters,the grassland disaster has been deeply influence the development of stockbreeding.Grassland fires occurred frequently in many provinces and caused severe loss.So the study on connection of grassland fire times and losses was very necessary.And this study is very useful to emergency response and recovery capability.Information matrix method is useful to identify the fuzzy relationship of variable.Taking Jilin Province for example,choose two index of the amount of grassland fires and the losses caused by grassland fire.According to the values of two index from1995 to 2005,calculated the fuzzy relationship of two indexes in Jilin Province.The results showed that when grassland fire occurred less than 30times,the losses caused by grassland fires increased abnormally.When grassland fires occurred over 40times,the losses steadily kept at 1.5 million yuan. |
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| Keywords: | grassland fire disaster information matrix the times of grassland fire disaster the losses caused by grassland fire disaster |
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