基于GWR的河南省县域经济差异及其驱动因子的时空演变研究

在总结河南省区域经济差异研究的基础上,分析县域经济的Moran’s I指数及其OLS估计残差值具有显著的空间自相性.采用地理加权回归方法,利用2000、2005、2012年相关数据,通过GWR的空间计量地理学方法,对河南省108个县市经济发展的影响因素进行回归分析,得到以下结论:投资因素对县域经济发展水平具有正向作用,对经济发展水平的贡献逐步减小;第二产业劳动力比例因素对于县域经济发展水平大部分都具有正向作用,贡献呈现逐步增长的趋势;产业结构因素对于与县域经济发展水平之间呈现负相关关系;消费水平因素对于县域经济发展水平为正影响,影响重要程度从西到东逐渐转移;储蓄水平因素对于区域经济发展水平的影响有正有负.在总结各地区县域经济发展特征的基础上,对河南省县域经济发展提出相关的政策建议.

Space-Time Evolvement of the Country Economy Disparity and its Driving Factors Based on GWR Method in Henan Province

Based on the research of economy disparity in Henan Province,Global Moran’s I index of country economy and the result of OLS estimated residual value indicate a strong spatial autocorrelation. We analyzed the influencing factors to country economy in Henan using relevant data from 2000,2005 and 2012. The results show that there are significant spatial correlation and spatial non-stationarity of country in Henan Province. The conclusions are as follows. ①Investment factor has a positive effect on the level of the country economy,but the contribution to the economic development gradually decreaseds;②The labor factor has a positive effect,while the contribution to the economic development gradually increases;③The industrial factor has a negative effect,and the effect becomes more important from east to west of Henan Province;④The consume factor has positive effect on the country economy;⑤The save factor has positive or negative effect on the country economy,which indicates the spatial heterogeneity. On the basis of summary in county development characteristics of each area,we put forward policy suggestions considering their advantages and the bottlesnecks.