| Control dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome transmission |
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| 作者姓名： | WANGHaiying RONGFeng KEFujiu BAIYilong |
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| 作者单位： | [1]StateKeyLaboratoryofNonlinearMechanics（LNM）,InstituteofMechanics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100080,China [2]DepartmentofAppliedPhysics,BeijingUniversityofAeronauticsandAstronautics,Beijing100088,China |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)，国家自然科学基金，中国科学院资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a serious disease with many puzzling features. We present a simple, dynamic model to assess the epidemic potential of SARS and the effectiveness of control measures. With this model, we analysed the SARS epidemic data in Beijing.The data fitting gives the basic case reproduction number of 2.16 leading to the outbreak, and the variation of the effective reproduction number reflecting the control effect. Noticeably, our study shows that the response time and the strength of control measures have significant effects on the scale of the outbreak and the lasting time of the epidemic.
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| 关 键 词： | SARS 非典型肺炎 传染病控制 动力学 |
| 收稿时间： | 30 June 2003 |
Control dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome transmission |
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| WANGHaiying RONGFeng KEFujiu BAIYilong.Control dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome transmission[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(24):2684-2687. |
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| Authors: | Wang Haiying Rong Feng Ke Fujiu Bai Yilong |
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| Abstract: | Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a serious disease with many puzzling features. We present a simple, dynamic model to assess the epidemic potential of SARS and the effectiveness of control measures. With this model, we analysed the SARS epidemic data in Beijing. The data fitting gives the basic case reproduction number of 2.16 leading to the outbreak, and the variation of the effec-tive reproduction number reflecting the control effect. No-ticeably, our study shows that the response time and the strength of control measures have significant effects on the scale of the outbreak and the lasting time of the epidemic. |
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| Keywords: | SARS basic reproduction number effective reproduction number scale of epidemic lasting time of epidemic |
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