| 金沙江流域月径流时间序列的混沌分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘国,黄胜,许模,毛邦彦.金沙江流域月径流时间序列的混沌分析[J].成都理工大学学报(自然科学版),2007,34(4):390-393. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘国 黄胜 许模 毛邦彦 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 成都理工大学"地质灾害防治与地质环境保护"国家重点实验室,成都,610059;西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川绵阳,621002 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在介绍重构相空间技术的主要定量指标(关联维数D2和柯尔莫奇诺夫熵)的基础上,以长江上游金沙江流域小黄瓜园站和蔡家村站的月径流时间序列为例详细说明了求取时间序列中的混沌特征数的方法;并且采用主分量分析(PCA分布)方法进一步验证了两个站的径流序列具有混沌特性.得到金沙江流域径流序列的预测年限不应超过7～9个月,为金沙江流域径流预测提供了科学的依据.
|
| 关 键 词： | 混沌 关联维数 柯尔莫奇诺夫熵 月径流时间序列 主分量分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-9727（2007）04-0390-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-08 |
Chaos analysis of the monthly runoff time series in Jinsha River, China |
| |
| LIU Guo,HUANG Sheng,XU Mo,MAO Bang-yan.Chaos analysis of the monthly runoff time series in Jinsha River, China[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Technology: Sci & Technol Ed,2007,34(4):390-393. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Guo HUANG Sheng XU Mo MAO Bang-yan |
| |
| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Geological Hazard Prevention and Geological Environment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China ; School of Environment and Resources, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang 621002, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the introduction of the main quantitative indexes of correlation dimension D2 and Kolmogorov entropy in rebuilding time series imbedding space, this paper discusses the methods of searching for chaos in the monthly runoff time series at the Xiaohuangguayuan and Caijiacun stations in Jinsha River of the Yangtze River upstream. The primary component analysis method is used to validate their chaotic character. The result shows that the forecasting length for this monthly runoff time series would not exceed 7-9 months. This time series chaotic analysis will provide a scientific basis for the runoff forecasting in Jinsha River. |
| |
| Keywords: | chaos correlation dimension Kolmogorov entropy monthly runoff time series primary component analysis |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
