基于持续期模型的网络金融创新产品扩散研究

针对我国银行业采纳网络金融创新产品(国际借记卡)的行为,运用持续期模型分析影响银行采纳创新产品的因素,挖掘创新产品扩散过程中的规律.实证研究结果表明:银行采纳创新产品的概率与银行规模不存在显著的相关关系;银行的盈利能力越强,银行业务中表外业务所占的比重越大,业务量增长越快,其采纳创新产品的概率就越大;现有银行卡交易越活跃,银行开发和推广创新产品的激励就越小;国有商业银行、股份制商业银行和城市商业银行在采纳创新产品的时间及创新产品扩散的速度上存在差异.研究结果可以为我国商业银行制定战略,管理部门掌握银行业发展的动态规律及制定相关的法律、政策提供借鉴.

Diffusion of e-Finance Innovations Based on Duration Model

The behavior of those China's banks which adopted an e-finance innovation(international debit card) is studied using the duration model to analyze the influencing factors on the banks' decision to adopt innovations and seek for the laws of diffusion of innovations.The empirical results reveal that no significant correlation is found between the size of bank and the probability of adopting innovations.The banks' profitability,the proportion of off-balance-sheet banking business and its operation load growth rate are positively correlated with the probability of adopting innovations.The more flourishing the existing transactions via bank cards,the weaker the banks' incentive to develop and popularize the international debit cards.It is found that there are discrepancies between the state-owned,joint-stock and municipal commercial banks in respect to the time when they make decisions to adopt innovations and relevant rates of diffusion.All the results are beneficial to the management of China's commercial banks to formulate their developmental strategies and dynamically grasp the present situation with some relevant legal policies decided.