流动性过剩与股市上涨的因素分析

文章以宏观经济学为理论基础,采用误差修正模型、向量自回归模型等经济计量的方法,通过对包括货币市场、股票市场和外汇市场的大量的国内外数据的考察,估计了我国宏观经济中的过剩资本,大约在60000亿元的水平,其主要原因是货币供给过多,它是导致2007年我国股票市场"牛市"的主要原因;文章还从其他方面对股市上涨做了分析并讨论了外汇市场与股票市场的相互影响.

Factors analysis on liquidity surplus and a rise of Chinese stock markets

With macroeconomics as a theoretical basis,in this paper there are econometric methods(Errorcorrection Model,VAR Model,etc.) to analyze a multitude of domestic and foreign data,including data in monetary markets,stock markets,and foreign exchange markets.Furthermore,it estimate that there was about 6000 billion yuan surplus of capital in Chinese macro economy,find that redundant money supply was the main reason for liquidity surplus and it was the most important reason for China bull market in 2007.Our rese...