兰州-中川城际铁路发展战略及其影响研究

分析了甘肃省城际铁路发展战略对区域经济、社会以及环境的影响,旨在探索符合西北地区实际情况的城际铁路发展道路. 以兰州-中川城际铁路为例,采用情景分析法对项目规划过程中的相反观点进行研究,找出规划思路中的关键性冲突,通过统筹比选最终确定了符合实际的建设方案. 提出了研究过程中面临的主要问题以及取得的技术突破,诸如建设必要性因素权重的确定、运量需求预测、区域经济影响等. 提出了针对城际铁路发展战略的影响分析体系,希望对城际铁路建设决策的科学制定具有一定的指导意义. 通过现场调研发现,研究结果及结论符合兰州-中川城际铁路项目发展的实际情况.

A Study of Lanzhou-Zhongchuan Intercity Railway and Its Effects

This paper aimed at systematically exploring the right development way of intercity railway (IR) by estimating the strategic impacts of IR construction on regional economy, society and environment in Gansu province, which showed the characteristics of Northwest China. By choosing Lanzhou-Zhongchuan IR as an instance and introducing scenario analysis method, the opponent viewpoints, the critical conflicts and the right construction scheme in the project planning was systematically analyzed. The paper showed the key technical difficulties and breakthroughs of our research, such as weight determination of necessity factor, forecasting traffic demand of the IR, regional economic impact and so on. Finally, a framework of strategic impact analysis was designed in the paper, so as to make decision more rationally in the IR planning. It is easy to find that the research result and the conclusion accord with the actual situation of Lanzhou-Zhongchuan IR by investigation.