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| 基于模拟技术和AHP的房地产项目风险的定量评估 | |
| 引用本文： | 蒋根谋,胡振鹏,金峻炎. 基于模拟技术和AHP的房地产项目风险的定量评估[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2007, 27(9): 77-81. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2007)9-77 |
| 作者姓名： | 蒋根谋 胡振鹏 金峻炎 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南昌大学,管理科学与工程系,南昌,330023;华东交通大学,土木建筑学院,南昌,330013 2. 南昌大学,管理科学与工程系,南昌,330023 3. 华东交通大学,土木建筑学院,南昌,330013 |
| 摘 要： | 提出了一新的房地产项目定量经济风险评价模型,并且将AHP方法应用于房地产项目经济风险分析,客观地确定模型中各风险因素的权重.并结合工程案例,利用新提出的风险分析模型,基于模拟技术,对房地产项目的经济风险进行了定量的分析;同时,对单个或多个风险因素组合对房地产投资的经济风险做了敏感性分析. |
| 关 键 词： | 层次分析法 房地产 风险分析 敏感性分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-6788(2007)09-0077-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-01-25 |
Quantitative Evaluation of the Real Estate''''s Risk based on the AHP and Simulation |
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| JIANG Gen-mou,HU Zhen-peng,JIN Jun-yan. Quantitative Evaluation of the Real Estate''''s Risk based on the AHP and Simulation[J]. Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice, 2007, 27(9): 77-81. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2007)9-77 | |
| Authors: | JIANG Gen-mou HU Zhen-peng JIN Jun-yan |
| Abstract: | A new quantified model of evaluating the economic risk of real estate project has been proposed in this paper and the weight of each risk factor influencing the outcome of real estate project in the model has been objectively calculated by using AHP.Based on the simulation,the quantified evaluation and analysis of economic risk of an example has been done;the sensitivity analysis which one factor or more factors combined influence the real estate project has been made by using the new model proposed in this paper. |
| Keywords: | AHP real estate risk analysis sensitivity analysis |
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