| 宿州市粮食生产灰色关联分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 苏海民,方刚,何爱霞,董传斌.宿州市粮食生产灰色关联分析及预测[J].菏泽学院学报,2011,33(5):9-14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苏海民 方刚 何爱霞 董传斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 宿州学院地球科学与工程学院,安徽宿州Z34XO |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省高校人文社科研究项目(2011sk469); 安徽省教育厅高校优秀青年人才基金资助项目(2010SQRW145); 安徽宿州学院硕士科研基金资助项目(2009YSS03,2010YSS04) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据宿州市1978～2009年粮食产量相关统计资料,运用灰色模型对宿州市粮食生产预测并进行影响因素灰色关联分析.结果表明:宿州市粮食产量整体呈上升趋势,但中间因气候因素导致较大波动,若措施得当,未来6年粮食产量将逐年增加;9个影响因子中,粮食单产、粮食播种面积、农业生产资料价格及农田水利设施是影响宿州市粮食生产的最重要的因子.
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| 关 键 词： | 宿州市 粮食产量 灰色关联 灰色预测 |
Gray Correlation Analysis of Grain Production in Suzhou and the Prediction |
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| SU Hai-min,FANG Gang,HE Ai-xia,DONG Chuan-bin.Gray Correlation Analysis of Grain Production in Suzhou and the Prediction[J].Journal of Heze University,2011,33(5):9-14. |
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| Authors: | SU Hai-min FANG Gang HE Ai-xia DONG Chuan-bin |
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| Institution: | SU Hai-min,FANG Gang,HE Ai-xia,DONG Chuan-bin(School of Earth Sciences and Engineering,Suzhou University,Suzhou Anhui 234000,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistical data at the urban level from 1978 to 2009,grain problem in Suzhou City is discussed in two aspects with the help of the theory and method of grey system.Using the GM(1,1) model,the varying trend of the total grain production from 2010 to 2015 is predicted.The results show that grain yield whole assumes the trend of escalation,but because of some factors cause fluctuation greatly;if the measures are appropriate,grain yield will increase year by year in the future 6 years,the grain yi... |
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| Keywords: | Suzhou City grain yield gray relative analysis gray forecasting |
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