基于动态异质性参照点的地铁应急疏散出口选择行为

鉴于地铁应急疏散中决策者的有限理性、决策者的异质性以及所面临决策环境的差异性,本研究通过将决策者的个人属性和备选方案的方案属性引入参照点,建立了基于动态异质性参照点的地铁应急疏散出口选择模型。通过将该模型应用到上海世纪大道地铁站的调查数据,并将不同情景和不同决策者类别的模型结果分别与基于静态同质性参照点的模型结果进行对比,表明基于动态异质性参照点的模型预测结果与实际选择结果之间的误差更小,能更准确的描述决策者的决策行为。

Study on exit selection behavior of subway emergency evacuation based on dynamic heterogeneous reference points

In view of the bounded rationality and the heterogeneity of decision makers, and the differences in the decision-making environment faced by the decision makers in subway emergency evacuation, this study introduces the personal attributes of decision makers and the attributes of alternatives into the reference points, and establishes a subway emergency evacuation exit selection model based on dynamic heterogeneous reference points. By applying the model to the survey data of Shanghai Century Avenue Subway Station, and comparing the model results of different scenarios and different decision-makers categories respectively with the model results based on static homogeneity reference points, it is shown that the error between the prediction results based on the dynamic heterogeneous reference points and the actual selection results is smaller and the decision-making behavior of the decision maker can be described more accurately.