基于云理论的斜拉索耐久性风险评估

为了有效地避免事故的发生，给项目的安全提供前瞻性意见，提出一种基于云理论和ALARP准则的空间风险分析法.首先引入“可预兆性”作为风险指标，建立三维风险空间.随后定义了“风险界面”的概念，并以风险指标等级为变量建立界面方程.通过修改变量系数调整风险空间形态，实现不同评估需求下对风险指标的赋权.最后，根据云运算法则建立风险空间云模型和评估样本云模型，并基于样本云模型生成大量云滴，带入风险空间正向云发生器中计算平均确定度，作为确定最终风险评级的依据，实现了风险评估过程的完全量化.以斜拉索耐久性风险评估为例，验证了新方法与规范的相符性和可行性.

Durability Risk Assessment of Stay Cables Based on Cloud Theory

Reasonable evaluation of risk can effectively avoid accidents and provide forward-looking opinions for the project safety. A spatial risk analysis method based on cloud theory and ALARP criterion was proposed. First of all， "predictability" is introduced as a risk index to establish a three-dimensional risk space. Subsequently， the concept of "the risk interface" is defined， and the interface equation is established based on the level of the risk index. By modifying the variable coefficient， the risk space shape is adjusted to realize the empowerment of risk indicators under different assessment needs. Finally， the cloud models of risk space and evaluation sample are established according to the principle of cloud theory. Based on sample cloud model， a large number of cloud drops are generated and brought into normal cloud generator to calculate average certain degree， which is a basis for determining the final risk rating. It realizes the complete quantification of the risk assessment process. The consistency and feasibility between this method and standard are verified by taking durability risk evaluation as an example.