基于系统动力学与博弈思想的建筑垃圾预测与管控研究

在我国快速的城市化进程中，建筑垃圾成为建设可持续发展城市的一大阻碍。为有效、动态的预测建筑垃圾产量，实现控制与减少建筑垃圾的目标,基于系统动力学（SD）理论分析建筑垃圾产量影响因素并创建以成都市为例的建筑垃圾SD模型，运用VENSIM软件进行模拟，预测持续时间内建筑垃圾产量；引入博弈思想从经济角度分析建设方和监管方之间如何对建筑垃圾实施最优化策略。结果表明 ：5种情景方案模拟结果中，综合方案对于管控建筑垃圾效果最佳；监管部门细化建筑垃圾处理标准并实行奖惩体系，建设单位积极主动地参与建筑垃圾的合理处置为最优化策略。

Construction waste prediction and control based on SD and Game ideas

In the process of rapid urbanization in my country, construction waste has become a major obstacle to the construction of sustainable cities. To effectively and dynamically predict the output of construction waste, achieve the goals of controlling and reducing construction waste. Based on the System Dynamics (SD) theory, analyze the influencing factors of construction waste output and create a SD model of construction waste taking Chengdu as an example, using VENSIM software simulate, and predict the construction waste output in the duration; Introducing game ideas analyze from an economic perspective how to implement an optimization strategy for construction waste between the builder and the supervisor. The results show that: in the simulation results of 5 scenarios, the comprehensive plan has the best effect on the control of construction waste; supervision department refines disposal standards of construction waste and implements reward and punishment system and construction unit actively participates in the reasonable disposal of construction waste as the optimal strategy.