| 颍河流域水资源开发潜力与承载力分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈杰,欧阳志云. 颍河流域水资源开发潜力与承载力分析[J]. 农业系统科学与综合研究, 2011, 27(2): 129-134 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈杰 欧阳志云 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院,生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京,100085;阜阳师范学院,生命科学学院,安徽,阜阳,236041
2. 中国科学院,生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京,100085 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAC01A01); 安徽省高校自然科学基金项目(KJ2007B021) |
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| 摘 要： | 水环境污染和水资源短缺是影响颍河流域生态社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。研究通过水资源负载指数、水资源供需平衡模型分析了颍河流域水资源的开发利用潜力和人口承载力。结果表明,颍河流域水资源利用程度较高,流域整体负载指数为19.24,约一半县市的负载指数大于20,今后进一步开发的潜力较小;流域多年平均水资源量为94.51亿m^3,可引用流域外水资源潜力约23.69亿m^3,以水资源的最大可利用总量计算,2008年颍河流域水资源人口承载力约为2 732.88万人,低于常驻人口数量,超载幅度为10.88%;预测2020年水资源承载人口规模为3 590.87万人,高于预期人口11.62%。由于颍河流域地表水环境污染严重,如果考虑水质、供水保证率、气候变化等因素的影响,水资源实际承载力可能远小于计算值。研究结果对颍河流域合理利用水资源、促进节水治污、制定中长期社会经济发展规划有一定的参考价值。图1,表2,参18。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源承载力 负载指数 颍河流域 |
Exploitation Potential and Carrying Capacity of Water Resources of the Yinghe River Basin |
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| CHEN Jie,OUYANH Zhi-yun. Exploitation Potential and Carrying Capacity of Water Resources of the Yinghe River Basin[J]. System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture, 2011, 27(2): 129-134 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Jie OUYANH Zhi-yun |
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| Affiliation: | CHEN Jie1,2,OUYANH Zhi-yun1(1.State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100085,China,2.School of Life Sciences,Fuyang Teachers College,Fuyang 236041,China) |
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| Abstract: | Water pollution and water shortage is a key factor to affect the eco-socio-economic sustainable development in the Ying River Basin.By using water load index and building water supple and demand equilibrium model,this paper analyzed the exploitation potential and population carrying capacity of the basin's water resources.The results showed that water load index of the overall basin was 19.24,about half of counties and cities greater than 20,which suggested a high degree of water resources utilization and s... |
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| Keywords: | water resources carrying capacity load index Yinghe River Basin |
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