基于阈值回归模型的中国电力消费与经济增长的关系

应用阈值回归模型分析在不同经济增长阶段, 经济增长、工业结构、全要素电力使用效率和电力价格对电力消费的 差异性影响, 并基于此揭示1980--2008年中国经济增长与电力消费增长的非对称变化特征. 研究表明: 不同经济增长阶段各变量对电力消费的 作用存在差异, 人均GDP增长率高于9.25%时, 工业结构的重型化显著推动电力消费的增长, 而电力使用效率并未得到有效提高, 对电力消费 增长的抑制作用有限; 反之, 人均GDP增长率低于9.25%时, 经济增长是促进电力消费的主要力量, 电力使用效率的提高则有效地抑制了电力 消费的过快增长. 分析结果也表明, 电价扭曲削弱了价格机制配置电力资源以提高电力使用效率的作用, 积极稳妥地推进电力价格改革势在 必行.

Relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth of China based on threshold regression model

This article employed the threshold regression model analyzed the difference effects of economic growth,industry structure,total factor electricity efficiency and electricity price on electricity consumption in the different range of economic growth,it also demonstrated the asymmetry effects between electricity consumption and economic growth in 1980-2008.Research result shows that the roles of variables on electricity consumption are different in the different range of economic growth.When the growth rate of GDP/cap higher than 9.25%,electricity consumption is significantly promoted by the quickly development of heavy industry,but electricity efficiency has not been obviously enhanced,so it has limit effect to hold-up the growth of electricity consumption.When the growth rate of GDP/cap lower than 9.25%,economic growth is the main force to promote the electricity consumption,and the excessive growth of electricity consumption is significantly curbed by the prominently improvement of electricity efficiency.The results also show that the price subsidy policy distorts the electricity price mechanisms,so it is necessary to promote the reform of electricity price actively and steadily.