兼并多个目标企业的策略选择和时机确定

通过引入兼并成功概率,给出了协同价值大小和协同价值是否实现双重不确定下的单目标企业兼并时机.并把模型扩展到兼并多个目标企业情形,对独立兼并策略和序列兼并策略下的兼并时机进行求解.通过比较两种策略下的兼并阈值和主并企业价值,得到了兼并多个目标企业时的最优兼并策略.由于序列兼并可以获得额外的信息价值,序列兼并策略下的兼并阈值小于独立兼并策略下的兼并阈值,而且存在一段序列兼并区间, 使得序列兼并策略优于独立兼并策略.最后通过数值分析, 揭示了相关系数, 兼并成功概率,主并企业讨价还价能力对兼并阈值和序列兼并区间的影响.

Optimal strategy and timing of merging multi-targets

Through introducing the probability of success,the paper proposed the single-target merger timing under double uncertainty(both the size and the realization of the synergy are uncertain).Further- more,the paper extended the model to multi-targets merging situation,figuring out the merger timing under both independent merger strategy and sequential merger strategy.The paper also pointed out the optimal merger strategy of multi-targets merging through comparing and contrasting the threshold and acquirer’s firm value of two merging strategies.Because of the extra information value of sequential merger,the threshold of sequential merger strategy is smaller than that of independent merger strategy, and there exists a sequential merger interval where sequential merger strategy is superior to independent merger strategy.Finally,through numerical analyzing the paper investigated the impact of correlation coefficient,success probability,and the acquirer’s bargaining power on the threshold and the sequential merger interval.