岛屿复合生态系统的动态仿真

基于岛屿复合生态系统的特征和系统动力学在解决系统本质行为和机理方面的优势, 研究针对崇明的特点, 建立系统动力学模型, 在不同规划方案下, 对崇明复合生态系统进行动态仿真, 分析和预测未来区域发展的特点和可能存在的问题, 结果表明:未来经济的快速增长是崇明岛生态系统的主要压力, 并由此导致的资源问题将是崇明生态系统可持续发展的主要制约因素, 同时方案二体现了可持续的快发展低损耗的系统发展模式, 是较优方案.

System dynamic simulation of island composite ecosystem

In virtue of the character of composite ecosystem and strongpoint of system dynamic:in resolve essential conduct and mechanism of system,aiming at features of the Chongming.the research used the method of system dynamic to construct the dynamic model through system analysis.Based on the model,the development trend of Chongming composite ecosystem was simulated and region development character and problem in future were analyzed and forecasted.The results show that rapid economic growth is the main pressure of ecological system in future.As a result,resources is the major constraints of sustainable development of Chongming.And projectⅡreflects a sustainable development model of the rapid development with low-loss,which is the optimum solution.