大型海军舰船研制技术风险综合评估的一种结构化方法

给出了海军舰船系统的产品分解结构, 以美国NASA所提出的技术成熟度等级(TRL)为基础, 探讨了各个TRL级别对应的工程标志, 提出了确定底层单元技术成熟度的2种实施方式. 在系统指标综合过程中, 提出并分析了确定底层单元TLR权重的技术需求和难度因子、 技术关键程度因子和技术重要程度因子, 给出了权重要素的三维表示方法, 基于工程知识和应用经验确定了三类权重的确定方法. 在此基础上, 给出了各一级系统以及全舰级别TRL的计算表示法和图形表示法, 并对进一步的研究方向进行了分析.

A structural approach to assessment of technical risk in major navy vessel’s development

The product breakdown structures of major navy vessel are presented.Based on technical readiness level(TRL) by NASA,the engineering meaning of every readiness level is explored.Two practical modes of determining TRL value to every bottom unit are given.In the integration of system TRL value, it is pointed out that three weights,factor of technical need and difficulty degree,factor of key point and factor of importance degree,should be considered in calculation TRL value of every bottom unit. Three dimensions presentation of weight factors is given.And weights’ calculation is explored by practical engineering experience.On the basis,The TRL integration expression of the first class system and the whole vessel is presented and analyzed by value’s calculation and by figure.Finally,the further research direction is pointed out.