基于风险分担的基础设施BOT项目特许期调整模型

为了使政府和项目公司分担基础设施BOT项目的风险, 提出了特许期缩短、延长、不需调整和调整失效四种情况的判别条件, 在项目净现值率超过上限的情况下, 以社会福利最大化为目标, 构建了缩短特许期决策模型; 在项目净现值率低于下限的情况下, 以项目公司收益最大化为目标, 构建了延长特许期决策模型. 应用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对实际案例加以求解分析, 并在不同的折现率水平下对实现项目预期收益的累积概率进行测算和对比, 证明了在“单一”调价方法不适用的情况下通过调整特许期进行风险分担的有效性.

Concession period adjustment model for infrastructure BOT projects based on risk allocation

The criterion of concession period under the four conditions of shortening,extending,unchanged and invalid adjustment is proposed in order to make the government and project company share risk in infrastructural BOT projects.If NPVR(net present value ratio) exceeds the upper limit,the decision model is built for shortening concession period with the target of social welfare maximum.If the NPVR is under the lower limit,the decision model is built for extending concession period with the target of project company benefit maximum.Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a case for solution.Cumulative probability of realization of expected return is calculated and contrasted under different discount rate,so it proves the effectiveness of allocation of risk by the means of concession period adjustment when single price adjustment method is unsuitable.