| 经济波动与金属价格波动的相关性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄春松,刘建华.经济波动与金属价格波动的相关性研究[J].漳州师院学报,2007,21(4):4-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄春松 刘建华 |
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| 作者单位： | 漳州师范学院经济学系 福建漳州363000 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省教育厅社会科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 经济周期决定了金属价格周期。金属价格周期反映了经济周期,金属价格的波动与全球生产总值(CDP)增长率的波动几乎完全同步。利用时间序列及谱分析方法研究LME铜价格的周期问题,发现LME铜价格存在一个近7年半(88个月)的中周期和一个3年(36个月)的短周期。将周期叠加后,我们发现周期走势的高点和低点几乎都对应了价格走势的高点和低点,较好地刻画了LME铜的价格周期,反映了全球经济周期的变动趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济周期 经济增长 金属价格周期 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-468X(2007)04-04-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年9月7日 |
A Study of the Correlation Between the Economic Fluctuation and the Metal Price Fluctuation |
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| HUANG Chun-song,LIU Jian-hua.A Study of the Correlation Between the Economic Fluctuation and the Metal Price Fluctuation[J].Journal of ZhangZhou Teachers College(Philosophy & Social Sciences),2007,21(4):4-7. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Chun-song LIU Jian-hua |
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| Institution: | HUANG Chun-song LIU Jian-hua |
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| Abstract: | The metal price cycle is determined by the economic cycle and reflects the economic cycle.The fluctuation of metal price almost synchronizes with the fluctuation of the global GDP growth rate.This paper applies the time series spectral analysis to study the cycle of LME copper price and finds that the LME copper price has a medium cycle of almost seven and a half years and a short cycle of three years.After the cycles are overlapped,it is found that the high point and the low point of the cycle trend correspond with the high point and low point of the price trend respectively,which describes the price cycle of LME copper and re- flects the trend of global economic cycle. |
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| Keywords: | economic cycle economic growth metal price cycle |
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