灰色系统的弹箭系统研制费用估计模型的研究

对弹箭系统研制费用的估计常采用多元线性回归方程法。该方法要求有大量样本数据的情况 ,并且估计精度较差。在新型弹箭系统的研制中 ,由于样本数据较少 ,给研制费用估计带来一定的困难。该文应用灰色系统预测理论解决弹箭系统研制费用估计问题 ,建立了灰色系统GM预测模型和n次累加残差模型并对GM预测模型进行修正。通过实例计算能看出用较少的样本可以得到较高的预测精度。

Research on Estimation Model of Ammunition and Rocket System Development Cost Based on the Grey System

The estimation of ammunition and rocket system development cost often adopts the method of multiple variable linear regression equation .The method needs many sample data and obtains lower precision.During the new type ammunition and rocket system development, fewer sample data make it very difficult to estimate the development cost. The paper makes use of the theory of Grey system forecast to resolve the ammunition and rocket system development cost evaluation, establishing the GM model of Grey systems and cumulative residual error model, then correcting the GM forecast model. The calculation of concrete examples indicates that higher precision can be obtained with fewer samples.