重庆市货币市场与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于金融要素市场理论

运用协整检验和Granger因果检验等计量方法,实证研究重庆1980~2006年货币市场发展与经济增长的关系。实证检验结果表明：重庆经济增长与货币市场发展之间存在着长期的稳定关系;经济增长是货币市场发展水平提升的重要原因,货币发展水平对经济增长也有一定的影响,但是经济增长与货币转化效率之间的因果关系也不显著。显然,重庆经济增长与货币市场发展之间缺乏协调机制。针对这个问题,提出了相应的政策建议。

Empirical Study of the Relationship of Chongqing Monetary Market and Economic Increase in the Light of Financial Market Theory

According to co-integration test and Granger causality test, the relationship of monetary market and economic increase in Chongqing from 1980 to 2006 will be empirically studied. The result shows that Chongqing economic growth goes steady with monetary market, and economic growth is the main cause of promoting monetary market＇s development. Certainly the monetary development level has impact on economic growth, but the cause and effect relationship between economic growth and monetary transformation efficiency is not so obvious, for there is no coordinating mechanism between them. Thus, this article will put forward some suggestions dealing with this problem.