| 基于随机网络模拟的航天项目风险分析和评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 符志民.基于随机网络模拟的航天项目风险分析和评估[J].系统工程与电子技术,2007,29(3):375-377. |
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| 作者姓名： | 符志民 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京大学光华管理学院博士后科研流动站,北京,100871;中国博士后文华科研工作站,北京,100101 |
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| 摘 要： | 鉴于各种不确定性因素对航天三项关键参量(战术技术指标,进度和费用)影响的重要性,应用随机网络理论和方法,建立了航天项目研制过程的随机网络模型,对航天项目进度风险和费用风险进行了定量化分析和研究。以一个典型航天项目为例,构建了其研制过程每一阶段的随机网络模型,并进行了求解和分析,得出了富有价值的建设性结论。
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| 关 键 词： | 随机网络 风险管理 风险决策 费用风险 进度风险 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-506X(2007)03-0375-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年5月12日 |
Risk analysis and evaluation of aerospace project based on random network simulation |
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| FU Zhi-min.Risk analysis and evaluation of aerospace project based on random network simulation[J].System Engineering and Electronics,2007,29(3):375-377. |
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| Authors: | FU Zhi-min |
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| Abstract: | In view of the various nondeterministic risk factors have a great influence upon the three critical parameters(i.e.tactical and technical targets,progress and cost) in the aerospace projects,this paper puts forwards a random network model of aerospace project development process by using the theory and method of random network,analyses the expensie risk and the progress risk of the project.It takes a typical aerospace project for example,constructs random network model for every phase in development process,and performs derivation and analysis.Finally a valuable constructive conclusion is drawn. |
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| Keywords: | random network risk management risk decision cost risk progress risk |
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