基于MARKOV——灰色模型的土地利用结构变化预测

以漳州市为例，根据同一套土地利用数据分别用马尔柯夫和灰色模型进行土地利用结构变化预测．两种模型各有优点，将所得到的结果互相验证，可提高预测的可信度和精度．两种预测结果一致表明：若继续保持2001--2006年的变化速率，耕地、林地和未利用土地持续减少，建设用地和园地呈增长趋势，而牧草地和水利设施相对比较稳定．预测结果为土地利用规划的制定提供科学的依据．

Forecast of Land-using Structure Change based on Markov-grey Model

The rational forecast problem of land-using structures is discussed. Taking Zhangzhou as an example, Markov and grey forecasting models are adopted to forecast the change of land-using structure. The forecasting results show that, with the change rate in 2001--2006, the arable land, forest land, and unexploited land resource will decrease, the construction land and garden land will increase, and the meadow land and the water conservancy facility land take on relatively stable.