| 模糊影响图评价高速公路经营风险 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 陈贇,李晶晶,杨文安. 模糊影响图评价高速公路经营风险[J]. 系统工程, 2006, 24(3): 40-43 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 陈贇 李晶晶 杨文安 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 长沙理工大学,交通运输学院,湖南,长沙,410076 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 浙江省湖州市自然科学基金;湖南省教育厅科研项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 从高速公路经营者的角度．采用模糊影响图对高速公路经营风险进行评价。首先，从高速公路经营效益出发．分析影响效益的风险因素．绘制高速公路经营风险影响图；采用经营效益与可行性研究阶段预计经济效益差值作为影响图价值结点；运用模糊影响图计算方法计算效益增减概率，以此评价经营风险程度；最后通过一算例说明计算方法．并得出了风险评价结论。
|
| 关 键 词： | 高速公路 经营风险 模糊影响图 评价 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4098（2006）03-0040-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-262005-12-28 |
Evaluating the Management Risk of Expressway by the Method of Fuzzy Influence Diagrams |
| |
| CHEN Yun,LI Jing-jing,YANG Wen-an. Evaluating the Management Risk of Expressway by the Method of Fuzzy Influence Diagrams[J]. Systems Engineering, 2006, 24(3): 40-43 |
| |
| Authors: | CHEN Yun LI Jing-jing YANG Wen-an |
| |
| Abstract: | The method of fuzzy influence diagrams has been applied to evaluate the management risk of expressway's operators in this paper.Firstly,considering the benefit of expressway management,this paper has analyzed the risk factors that affect the benefit,and drawn the fuzzy influence diagrams of the management risk of expressway.Secondly,the difference value of the management benefit and the economic benefit predicted in the feasibility study has been adopted as the value node.Thirdly,the probability of benefit growth or decrease has been obtained by the fuzzy influence diagrams to evaluate the management risk.lastly,the whole method has been demonstrated by an example and the conclusion of risk evaluation has been given. |
| |
| Keywords: | Expressway Management Risk Fuzzy Influence Diagrams Evaluation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
